Well what a coinky-dink

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes decreased in 9 states in September

So with Europe and China firing up the printing presses, is the Fed more likely to hike because of higher stock prices... er... I mean "better financial conditions" or less likely because of a stronger dollar?

Nemo wrote:

So with Europe and China firing up the printing presses, is the Fed more likely to hike because of higher stock prices... er... I mean "better financial conditions" or less likely because of a stronger dollar?

They don't have to hike, do they? Money should just start flooding in, shoudn't it?

Dont tell me no Rate Hike this Year.... American Apocalypse, by Nova Santa

"The worst performing states over the last 6 months are West Virginia (coal), North Dakota (oil), Alaska (oil), Wyoming, and Oklahoma (oil).

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is mostly green now. "

Next month will add Oklahoma, and then Texas:

$6.5 Billion in Energy Writedowns and We're Just Getting Started - Bloomberg Business

Curses! Oiled again!

Put your money where your mouth is on Texas - $100 to CR's tip jar - Texas goes red next month, I pay, if it doesn't you pay.

energyecon wrote:

Put your money where your mouth is on Texas

Try not to be so crass.

Although 9 red states out of 41 is not an indicator of a current recession, from the chart it's a leading indicator.

Category 6?

"Still, calling Patricia a category 5 underestimates just how ferocious this storm is."

Hurricane Patricia nears Mexico at record strength.

Shock

Operating as designed - maybe not to the fairly tale - but physics is just annoying that way.

The coherence of the eyewall in the satellite shots is just scary...

energyecon wrote:

Coming from you!

Did Mommy bring you to work today?

Wink

energyecon wrote:

The coherence of the eyewall in the satellite shots is just scary...

Looks like a goddamn black hole!

SOLAR: Ivanpah project described as deadly trap for wildlife - Press Enterprise

According to the federal report, smaller birds may be burning up completely; injured ones may be dying off site; and those that fall to the ground may be carried away by scavengers.
Forensics lab staff observed a falcon or falcon-like bird with a plume of smoke streaming from its tail as it passed through the heat zone. The bird lost stability and descended, but the team could not locate it. The investigators could not identify many burning objects, which they call streamers.

This one goes to 11!

Hurricane Patricia nears Mexico at record strength. 

Shortly after the research plane left, satellite estimates of Patricia’s intensity broke the Dvorak scale, peaking at 8.3 on the 8.0 scale.

energyecon wrote:

You're off your form today

I know...j'ai une gueule de bois!

Sick

I am falling in love with Barcelona.
And am now hooked on Cava. It is Yoringe's fault. Smile

energyecon wrote:

This one goes to 11!

National Weather Service has issued a warning for Texas.

This is some storm!

Exclamation Mark

josap wrote:

And am now hooked on Cava.

con Pulpo a la plancha!

Om-nom-nom-nom

It isn't gonna break up over the Mexican mountains? Wow.

What kind of a warning? Rain? Wind?

The water is so warm...this el nino is going to be serious for CA.

Stay safe Mexico!

Try Esceixada!! With the Cava... You will Love that! But a good one....

As a hurricane, Patricia will be completely destroyed by the Mexican Mountains, yes. The mid-level moisture it's bringing will still be there and will probably intensify the flooding Texas is already getting.

Yoringe wrote:

Try Esceixada

What is it?

I am falling in love with Barcelona.

Yes, a marvelous place. The mountains, the Gaudi streetlights, La Sagrada, La Rambla, the Olympic Park ... and I wish I'd had a traveling companion who liked museums.

will probably intensify the flooding Texas is already getting.

Yep, it will make that the third system that piles together to simultaneously dump rain on TX

Glod is a woman and she is displeased.

lawyerliz wrote:

What kind of a warning? Rain?

Coastal flooding and rain.

energyecon wrote:

Yep, it will make that the third system that piles together to simultaneously dump rain on TX

How bizarre is this!

Holy crap.

In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth.

Nemo wrote:

In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth.

So...if we survive this one we're good to go?

Fed should hike rates due to asset market ‘frothiness,’ OECD chief economist says - MarketWatch

Good interview, cogent analysis. Unfortunately, it falls on deaf ears. Upward and onward we go in a "low equilibrium", to borrow the author's term.

Cinco-X wrote:

Nemo wrote:

In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth.

So...if we survive this one we're good to go?

Nothin' but blue skies and good times ahead!

Tom Stone wrote:

Nothin' but blue skies and good times ahead!

Party

Corsicana, and Carrolton/Dallas are getting hammered as we text, and the Aged P in Granbury might be getting it soon.

lawyerliz wrote:

Glod is a woman and she is displeased.

She needs to go to Barcelona, eat tapas and drink Cava. Walk the parks, see the green parrots in the trees.

In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Ear

Really?... Got a link?

Imagine how strong it would be if man made global warming was real?

Tom Stone wrote:

Nothin' but blue skies and good times ahead!

If you believe that I've got a 95 year old kit house you can bid on.

And the wife laughed when I said I wanted a house on a hill.

"And the wife laughed when I said I wanted a house on a hill. "

Batten the hatches.

Really?... Got a link?

Click "in reply to". The quote is from the article energyecon linked.

Rob Dawg wrote:

If you believe that I've got a 95 year old kit house you can bid on.

Is it already assembled?

At 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia Is Now the Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded

I'm interested in the claim that 200 mph or there abouts is a "theoretical maximum".

Cinco-X wrote:

If you believe that I've got a 95 year old kit house you can bid on.

Is it already assembled?

Mostly. The termites were paid to keep holding hands until escrow closes.

Thanks! Still can't find it. gotta get back to the CME. I'll re-read the article later.

robj wrote:

Batten the hatches.

We're actually clearing off currently. Last night was bad into the early morning. Looks like we have some scattered showers in the area, but not the torrential downpour of the wee hours we had before dawn. I don't know how much we've gotten, but the creek down the hill is out of its banks and the cows are standing on the lone peak on the floodplain. Cows are not happy.

traderwalt wrote:

I'm interested in the claim that 200 mph or there abouts is a "theoretical maximum".

It's a fluid dynamics thing. Not that I know anything about the subject think about everyday things. A boat propellor can move the water only so fast before it cavitates. A tarp over stuff on the roof of your car works fine up to a point then does wild stuff. A storm wall cannot generate a gradient any higher without shearing itself apart with turbulence.

And in other news the trawler finally sold! Laughing out loud

A big storm from Corsicana to Hillsboro just below Waxahachie but it may train to the northeast rather than Ft. Worth, vonbek.

robj wrote:

A big storm from Corsicana to Hillsboro just below Waxahachie but it may train to the northeast rather than Ft. Worth, vonbek.

Yeah, I think we're going to miss that.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Mostly. The termites were paid to keep holding hands until escrow closes.

They're not union, are they?

Actually, maybe not. Apparently my interactive weather map had a glitch.... I don't know now. But the sun is peeking out for the moment.

Rob Dawg wrote:

It's a fluid dynamics thing. Not that I know anything about the subject think about everyday things. A boat propellor can move the water only so fast before it cavitates. A tarp over stuff on the roof of your car works fine up to a point then does wild stuff. A storm wall cannot generate a gradient any higher without shearing itself apart with turbulence.

I suspect it's a matter of being able to maintain the pressure gradient. Since there's no vessel to separate low pressure from higher pressure, it probably required exponentially greater energy to increase the pressure differential linearly...

North Dakota throws a two-year lifeline to oil 'ducks'
| Reuters

I guess you can change the rules at will.
Didn't Junior suspend the laws of thermodynamics?

A quick check indicates the theoretical maximum of about 200 is based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, not absolute issues like turbulence. Global warming will thus increase the maximum by warming the ocean and cooling the upper atmosphere. As an extreme example, if the ocean warmed to 50 C (in the ballpark of the worst warming scenarios) you might get 500 mph hypercanes.

Yoringe wrote:

Esqueixada

I saw signs for it.
How do you say it phonetically?

Fair Economist wrote:

you might get 500 mph hypercanes.

Wow! I'd warm the planet to see that. Wink

Cinco-X wrote:

I suspect it's a matter of being able to maintain the pressure gradient. Since there's no vessel to separate low pressure from higher pressure, it probably required exponentially greater energy to increase the pressure differential linearly...

That's true. Thing is even a vessel wouldn't allow for more as the surface effects on the vessel itself take over.

Hillary Clinton just had the best 10 days of her campaign - The Washington Post
The way she kept her cool for 11 hours as the Republicans on the eighth Benghazi committee spewed nonsense based on the most bizarre conspiracy theories is going to be legendary
.

But nobody got fired over Benghazi? And that's good? Strange perspective.

Fair Economist wrote:

Global warming will thus increase the maximum by warming the ocean and cooling the upper atmosphere.

Have you run this by the New Improved Deniers Club at HCNvNegative2.1?

Quest

Rob Dawg wrote:

Tom Stone wrote:

Nothin' but blue skies and good times ahead!

If you believe that I've got a 95 year old kit house you can bid on.

Meh, I can do better than that almost anywhere along the Russian River and get scorpions in the woodpile as a bonus!

Wow! I'd warm the planet to see that. Wink

It's a good mad scientist motivation!

traderwalt wrote:

At 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia Is Now the Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded

I'm interested in the claim that 200 mph or there abouts is a "theoretical maximum".

They clearly haven't tried chipotle deviled eggs.

crispyandcole wrote:

this el nino is going to be serious for CA.

How so?

Tom Stone wrote:

They clearly haven't tried chipotle deviled eggs.

Pull my finger?

Blackhalo wrote:

crispyandcole wrote:

this el nino is going to be serious for CA.

How so?

Try finding a roofer.

Fair Economist wrote:

if the ocean warmed to 50 C (in the ballpark of the worst warming scenarios) you might get 500 mph hypercanes.

What is the speed of the spot on Jupiter? Could we get a permanent hurricane too?

Blackhalo wrote:

Tom Stone wrote:

They clearly haven't tried chipotle deviled eggs.

Pull my finger?

Why is it way down there?

Blackhalo wrote:

Pull my finger?

From normal to Belmont?

You're right there Mirror mirror on the wall, who is paying for this all?

Blackhalo wrote:

crispyandcole wrote:

this el nino is going to be serious for CA.

How so?

Thousands of alarmists will be too busy sandbagging for real to find the time to agitate.

merchants of fear wrote:

who?

Frankly, I didn't even know that he was running.

Exclamation Mark

Tom Stone wrote:

Why is it way down there?

New Keyboard

Tom Stone wrote:

Try finding a roofer.

Install solar panels instead.

That's were all the roofers have gone.

Wink

Rob Dawg wrote:

I suspect it's a matter of being able to maintain the pressure gradient. Since there's no vessel to separate low pressure from higher pressure, it probably required exponentially greater energy to increase the pressure differential linearly...

That's true. Thing is even a vessel wouldn't allow for more as the surface effects on the vessel itself take over.

It's similar to limitation on lift that results from wingtip vortex...I think

Frankly, I didn't even know that he was running.
Exclamation Mark

He was a Republican then switched to Independent then switched to Dem..

Cinco-X wrote:

I think

I see that you and Robbie are back.

Another case of The Exurban Blues?

How is the self-appointed moderator position coming along?

Quest

"Thursday Patricia went from a weak tropical storm to a top-of-the-scale Category 5 hurricane in just 25 hours. It's believed to be the fastest strengthening ever observed. And it's likely to get stronger. Some models show the storm could reach sustained winds of 220 mph. That's unheard of.

"Also, as a Category 5 storm, Patricia is at the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale. If the categories went higher (as some have suggested in recent years), it would actually be labeled Category 7."

"Some areas in the U.S. could see a foot of rain or more in the coming days."

Yikes!

Exclamation Mark

Yoringe wrote:

Point a Finger?

Rant

Today I spoke mostly Spanish and a few full sentences. Big smile

What is the speed of the spot on Jupiter? Could we get a permanent hurricane too?

400 mph, according to NASA Wiki claims the size of hypercanes would make them long-lived, but not that they would be permanent. I'd think you'd still have the general poleward motion of current storms.

Cinco-X wrote:

I suspect it's a matter of being able to maintain the pressure gradient. Since there's no vessel to separate low pressure from higher pressure, it probably required exponentially greater energy to increase the pressure differential linearly...

That's true. Thing is even a vessel wouldn't allow for more as the surface effects on the vessel itself take over.

It's similar to limitation on lift that results from wingtip vortex...I think

If only there were someone here expert enough to tell you that's exactly correct.

Today I spoke mostly Spanish and a few full sentences. Big smile

I know lots of Spanish:
No te olvides de rastrillar el patio delantero.

Chris Christie is worried about the decrease in productivity when smoking marijuana while his ass is the size of couch?

GOP candidates divided on marijuana

Also notice how Disqus is used in the comment section. That is how to create a discussion group.

Wink

Rob Dawg wrote:

If only there were someone here expert enough to tell you that's exactly correct.

I picked that example for precisely that reason. Wink

I think I'm going to be sick.

Rob Dawg wrote:

If only there were someone here expert enough to tell you that's exactly correct.

I am certain that they inhabit HCNvNegative 2.1...perhaps you should go back.

Wink

Rob Dawg wrote:

No te olvides de rastrillar el patio delantero.

Do they also mow your gravel driveway and polish your derelict fleet of used cars?

Quest

"Dr. Hal Needham says he expects a storm surge of 16.5 ft (5 m), which will be accompanied by large, destructive waves. This would be the largest storm surge in the modern history of Western Mexico."

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Stunning, Historic, Mind-Boggling, and Catastrophic: Hurricane Patrica Hits 200 mph | Weather Underground

Louisiana Hurricane Center

BREAKINGNEWS UPDATE: I hope the people in Mexico in front of #Patricia have done all they can to protect life, she is a killer. Hurricane Patricia has now become the strongest HURRICANE ever recorded in history packing deadly category 5 catastrophic sustained winds of 200mph and unreal gusts of up to 245mph with a minimum pressure of 880mb!!!!!!!!!!! Basically a huge EF5 tornado. Unprecedented. http://TrackTheTropics.com/

They want to sell, so they will understand you....

Speaking of Yikes!

Oil girds for weekly loss of nearly 6% - MarketWatch

"In the end, oil “demand will probably win out overall because it is the only way we can work off over supply, and then we can start to worry about the billions of dollars of energy projects that have been canceled,” said Flynn."

Flynn has been pumping this dead horse for 12 months and now he is including the word; probably.

Star

Yoringe wrote:

They want to sell, so they will understand you....

As she walks away with a pint of ice cream only to find out later that it is congealed lard.

As an extreme example, if the ocean warmed to 50 C (in the ballpark of the worst warming scenarios) you might get 500 mph hypercanes.

Thank you FE for clearly explaining the point I was trying to make.

Recon coming in for Patricia, slightly STRONGER in pressure, slightly weaker in winds, possibly because it's just starting an eyewall replacement cycle. Trying to find exact comparisons to post links to.

YOU get what you project.... Josap gets a Extra Dip Ice Cream.... Tongue

Cinco-X wrote:

Maybe the new site will have an icon for this...

I know what it won't have.

Cinco-X wrote:

Maybe the new site will have an icon for this...

Let me guess....It's already Exurban Nation v45.0??

Vonbek777 wrote:

I know what it won't have.

I suspect that one night of the Ambien and Alcohol crowd and the flags will be flying like a Chinese parade.

Yoringe wrote:

They want to sell, so they will understand you....

Ok. And I will point.

Everyone else just got here.
Later.

Vonbek777 wrote:

I know what it won't have.

Laughing out loud

131 comments, only 11 hidden. I am starting to like the new site.

Fair Economist wrote:

Recon coming in for Patricia,

"First pass from Hurricane Hunters. 878 mb extrapolated pressure. Flight level winds 220 mph. Patricia hasn't weakened."

Yoringe wrote:

YOU get what you project.

So you end up with a stale sandwich and salt water?

Hmm, processed by a Storm2K member:

Last night:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 173 knots (199.1 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 192 knots (220.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 106 knots (122.0 mph) ... Suspect value: 175 knots (201.4 mph) ... two values missing
Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 885.2 mb (~ 26.14 inHg)

Latest:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 181 knots (208.3 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 191 knots (~ 219.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 166 knots (~ 191.0 mph)
Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 878.4 mb (~ 25.94 inHg)

For those not into hurricanes: SFMR measures the roughness of the water surface and gives an estimate for surface winds. Traditionally the surface wind is just estimated at 90% of the flight level for this kind of hurricane, so 198 mph would have been the surface reading 20 years ago. SFMR is preferred today, but it's very subject to artifacts.

The links are to rawish data, readable discussion thread here.

Edit: corrected pasting error

May. But i would complain before i eat it... Unlike you.... Tongue

Cinco-X wrote:

I picked that example for precisely that reason.

Ignore the California Redwood branches. Check out the driveway addition. Still a little clean up to do.

Yoringe wrote:

May. But i would complain before i eat it..

Do you hear this quite often in your restaurant?

Vonbek777 wrote:

Lego warns of bricks shortage this Christmas - Oct. 21, 2015

Best to buy early and buy often. Facepalm Really? Desperation this early?

Nope, otherwise i would be out of Business after 10 Years....Not to diss you, but People like you are Rare here and get Booted/Special Sauce Quick.... Snark

Yoringe wrote:

YOU get what you project.... Josap gets a Extra Dip Ice Cream....

And free sprinkles. Perfect reply.

that looks really fantastic, RD

very nice

I love it!

Made fresh Green Chilli Paste.... Hot!!

My sister-in-law has the same cold/flu I had in Paris. She is 72, so this is not good.

adornosghost wrote:

Actual meteorologists, not Watts my head doing up my ass?

Most professionals don't use words like "Stunning, Historic, Mind-Boggling, and Catastrophic." NO professional would use Catastrophic before the catastrophe.

adornosghost wrote:

Actual meteorologists, not Watts my head doing up my ass?

Even the cranks at WeatherBell are confirming.....

Elizabeth Warren And Bernie Sanders Embarrass Hapless Vulture Fund Investors

10/23/2015 07:31 AM EDT

"When you make a risky investment you should not expect to get 100 percent back on your dollar."

WASHINGTON -- Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called on the federal government Thursday to curb the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Puerto Rico by cracking down on vulture fund investors.

"Wall Street should not be believing that they can get blood from a stone," Sanders said. "When people are suffering and hurting, you cannot continue to squeeze them."

Wall Street investors, however, have been receiving a steady flow of funds from Puerto Rico, even on tax-free debt they purchased at a steep discount.

"They are receiving 11 percent [interest rates] and children in Puerto Rico are going hungry -- somehow that equation does not make a lot of sense to me," Sanders said. "They made risky investments. And when you make a risky investment, you should not expect to get 100 percent back on your dollar."

The Wall Street Journal will interpret this as another "power grab", by Warren

barfly wrote:

that looks really fantastic, RD

very nice

Thanks. The heavy rains pushed me to get it done. The turfstone grass was wonderful but drought had me let it go for water use reasons.

This one did, and he has been flying into hurricanes since the 90's, gathering data.

Powerful Hurricane Patricia Bears Down On Mexico

10/22/2015

MANZANILLO, Mexico (AP) — "Residents of a stretch of Mexico's Pacific Coast dotted with resorts and fishing villages boarded up homes and bought supplies ahead of Friday's arrival of Hurricane Patricia, a monster Category 5 storm that forecasters say is the strongest ever recorded in the Western hemisphere.

With maximum sustained winds near 200 mph (325 kph), Patricia is the strongest storm ever recorded in the eastern Pacific or in the Atlantic, said Dave Roberts, a hurricane specialist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center."

adornosghost wrote:

Very cool Dawg!

The pattern confuses the guys helping me no end. It doesn't seem to make sense but it is optimized for interlock and stability. The visual interest is a bonus. Because the driveway is 300 feet long and mostly steep the texture and seams slow runoff.

Rickkk wrote:

"When you make a risky investment, you should not expect to get 100 percent back on your dollar." ~ Sanders

Stay away from small airplanes Bernie.

That infrared image compared to Typhoon Haiyun is terrifying.

LMC just predicted 2015 autosales at 17.3 million, BTW.

6 New Rules of Business for the Next Industrial Revolution | Alan Murray

10/23/2015 9:57 am EDT

"The world is in the midst of a new industrial revolution."

Rickkk wrote:

"When you make a risky investment you should not expect to get 100 percent back on your dollar."

Ummm...then what's the point of making a risky investment? To get back 0.5%?

The pattern confuses the guys helping me no end. It doesn't seem to make sense but it is optimized for interlock and stability.

What's the source for the pattern?

Privatize the profits, socialize the risk.

Scum business model.

"Ummm...then what's the point of making a risky investment? To get back 0.5%?"

"You've got to know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away."

The bond market needs to have actual risk-----
Mommy and Daddy can't always cover those bad bets by sociopathic children.

(actually, it us taxpayers)

Rickkk wrote:

Show Notes: Murder by Plane? | Stuff They Don't Want You To Know

Checkout the stats for molecular biologists and biochemists killed at crosswalks since 2001...

Interest equals risk of Default... What did 11% Translate too...

function of density, so there's an assumption about just how low that can go....I think

"Checkout the stats for molecular biologists and biochemists killed at crosswalks since 2001..."

Interesting. Please provide some attribution.

Fair Economist wrote on Fri, 10/23/2015 - 9:21 am

As a hurricane, Patricia will be completely destroyed by the Mexican Mountains, yes.

I wouldn't want to be in those mountains as they wring the water of that thing.

Also, from the things any small brained primate knows already files.

World Bank treats human rights like an infectious disease, says UN official

Rickkk wrote:

Interesting. Please provide some attribution.

Can't, sorry.

Fair Economist wrote:

What's the source for the pattern?

I'm sure someone in antiquity must have used it. The bricks are 1.5 WxL of the squares. The repeating options are nearly endless. This one just makes sense.

adornosghost wrote:

(actually, it us taxpayers)

Puerto Rico.

Obama: [paraphrased] "The situation in PR is a case of humanitarian imperative." What he's thinking is ; "MILLIONS of Democrat voters."

Crude Oil 44.61

Damn. Where is poic? He should be loading up.

It's always good to know that the US supplies weapons to know supporters of terrorism:

Lockheed Martin, Boeing Rally Round Saudi Arabia, Wave Off Humanitarian Concerns

Wink

traderwalt wrote on Fri, 10/23/2015 - 9:50 am (in reply to...)

At 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia Is Now the Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded
I'm interested in the claim that 200 mph or there abouts is a "theoretical maximum".

I know diddly. The thing is hard to reason about using college physics and ass logic.

I suspect that it has to do with the difference between the surface temperature and the upper atmospheric temp. The differential is where the energy is coming from. That drives a plume of air that raises up till the water condenses. Probably true of all tropical storms. What what maybe turns it into a Hurricane is once the the surface winds get high enough they very efficiently transfer moisture* and heat from the ocean to the air. The eye probably forms because the central pressure drops low enough that there isn't much of density differential so no up draft.

  • Voted most detested word by women since 1908
I'm sure someone in antiquity must have used it. The bricks are 1.5 WxL of the squares. The repeating options are nearly endless. This one just makes sense.

Yes, it's probably been done before but you're saying you devised it yourself? Very nice, even if it is on the floor of some mosque somewhere.

Yo Adorno, is it Friday yet?

Looks a lot like my patio so of course I like it.

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